Joey From Yonkers’ Worst Gambling Beats of 2020, Part 2

Finally time to wrap up 2020 and my bad beats from it. Here is the conclusion:

10. Notre Dame-Georgia Tech:

The Irish had a 31-7 lead. They won it by 18. I bought a point down to 19.5, but needed to buy a couple more. Notre Dame was stopped a yard short in the final seconds. They actually ran one last play in an apparent attempt to cover, but it didn’t get the job done.

9. Cincinnati-UCF:

After deciding not to score a touchdown that would have covered, the Bearcats then tried to score and didn’t quite get there. This is one of many games on my list that made Bad Beats. The video and Scott Van Pelt can do a better job telling the story. This game happened to be on the same day as Boise-Hawaii, so it is in the same Bad Beats segment.

8. Boise State-Hawaii:

Two fourth quarter touchdowns by Hawaii blew Boise’s cover. There were penalties. Again, easier to let SVP describe it and show you the video. I could have teased it with the over. Two of my favorite teams were playing against each other, and I was on the wrong side. At least in terms of a point spread.

7. Nevada-Hawaii:

I had the second half over 30. It was 14-14 after halftime. Hawaii had a 24-21 lead in the game, and faced a third down deep in Nevada territory with 90 seconds remaining. Pass interference was called. Hawaii then had a first down at the 2, and took knees to end it. A completion for touchdown would have been good for me. Getting stopped likely would have resulted in a short field goal. Even turning the ball over on an interception or getting stopped on downs would have kept me alive. Somehow the one thing that could hurt me ended up happening. Second straight week that Hawaii got me.

6. Florida-Tennessee:

My Gators -16.5 was looking good. I had bought it down from 17.5. Florida was up by 18. I got in before the spread went that high. Tennessee drove 96 yards to backdoor it. The touchdown was scored on fourth down, and Tennessee also converted a fourth down earlier in that last drive. Another game featured on Bad Beats.

5. Mets-Yankees:

It was the first game of a doubleheader. In 2020, each game of a doubleheader was scheduled for 7 innings. The Mets were winning 7-2, and an out away from victory. In fact, a leadoff error was followed by two outs. Theoretically, the game should have already been over. A pitcher often referred to as Edlose blew the save. He even stayed in for the next inning and was hit with the loss. Game 2 was just icing on the cake. Another extra-inning loss. Even if it was also just 8 innings.

4. Washington Football Team-49ers:

Although they did next to nothing on offense, Washington won by 8. I had Niners +3.5 in a teaser. Washington scored one touchdown on a fumble return, and another touchdown on an interception return. One of Washington’s field goals was set up by a fumble. San Fran had an opportunity to tie late. Or, they could have pulled within two and missed the conversion but won me my teaser. A big play that would have put the Niners inside Washington’s 25 was called back by penalty. It ended 23-15. This game was also a big reason why the Giants didn’t win their division. Common sense would have told me to tease Washington, but a rooting interest overruled my brain.

3. Seahawks-Washington Football Team:

If I labeled this game Seattle-Washington it would have seemed like a northwest location. Seattle was up 20-3 in the fourth quarter. Washington scored a touchdown but missed the extra point. Their drive started from inside the Washington 5. Seattle then drove down inside Washington’s 40. Wilson was picked off on first down. Seattle seemed destined to go up by at least 14. I had bought it down to 5.5. Washington scored another touchdown but went for two and missed.

Seattle punted it back to Washington. The Seahawks forced a fumble. It was recovered at Washington’s 27. Announcer Kenny Albert stated that Seattle had recovered. They didn’t. Just a tease and false hope. Seattle would have been in field goal range. Washington eventually failed on fourth down. Wilson took knees to end it. The game finished 20-15. I needed to buy another point or go ML. This was the week after Washington burned me with that San Fran game.

2. San Diego State-BYU:

Yet another contest that SVP featured. Three second half San Diego State possessions inside BYU’s 10 produced zero points. Long drives that resulted in nothing but time off the clock. This over should have hit easily. One ridiculous play after another. Even a slight tease on what could have been ruled a fumble but was not. I also lost on BYU giving points, so it was a double whammy. At least one seemed like a lock with so many first half points. In retrospect, teasing this game would have been profitable. Do yourself a favor and watch the video.

1. Warriors-Kings:

Yes, this was a preseason NBA game. I don’t care. The money counts equally, and this was a brutal loss. Golden State actually took the game seriously. At least part of it. The Warriors stormed back from 19 down. Golden State was really too emotional. The Warriors were hit with a technical foul late in the fourth quarter when leading 110-106. Golden State was then up 113-109 with less than a minute remaining. The Warriors could have gone up by five but missed the second of two free throws. Sacramento scored with about 30 seconds left and trailed 113-111.

You could see it coming. Golden State missed. Sacramento had just enough time to win it. The Kings were obviously not playing for overtime. Kyle Guy hit the game winning shot from downtown as time expired. I had Golden State -125. The Warriors were a slight favorite, but I found out that Sacramento went off as the favorite.

I could have won with a better line if my bet was placed later. Salt in the wound. I still can’t believe that they probably lost this game because of a taunting technical due to being overly thrilled about a preseason comeback. Sacramento hosted Golden State again two days later. I was disgusted and wanted no part of the rematch. This time, Golden State won. 

Joey Backdoor’s Worst Gambling Beats of 2020, Part 1

Narrowing my list to 20 wasn’t easy. It has been a brutal year. Here is the first 10 of my top 20 bad beats from 2020.

1. LSU-Clemson:

In a battle of the Tigers, LSU prevailed to become champions. I should have loaded up on LSU after riding them all year. A guest on WFAN talked me into betting the total early in case it went up. 67 points were scored. Not over 69. Somehow, the total was bet down and closed at 66. I also could have gone for insurance by popping an LB on the under. Bet more on the lower number. Done a teaser. Total debacle. Literally, since it involved the total. Great way to end the season and start my year. 

2. Kings-Bucks:

Getting in early burned me again. Milwaukee beat Sacramento by 12. The line went down to 10, but that was after my bet went in. Giannis skipped the game. Apparently becoming a father is somewhat important to people. 

3. San Francisco-Gonzaga:

A late three by the Zags gave them a 71-54 victory. Some people won on -16.5, but I had 17.5. Bet it too soon. The line went down. This story seems familiar. Another problem with early wagers is I’m not able to buy points. I am great at finding ways to lose. 

4. Iowa-Michigan State:

MSU defeated Iowa 78-70. I had the Spartans -8.5, and Cassius Winston missed a late free throw to cover. Teasing with the over would have worked. It especially hurt because Winston was shooting free throws at an 87 percent clip.

5. Braves-Mets:

Edwin Diaz blew a save, and the Mets fell to 1-1. They were one out away from starting 2-0 against Atlanta in the shortened 2020 campaign. This set the tone for their entire season, and mine.

6. Mets-Braves:

I could not leave out the Mets losing 11-10 to Atlanta. It was 8-2 Mets. They also were ahead 10-5. Atlanta scored once in the sixth inning, but still trailed 10-6 in the eighth. Travis d’Arnaud doubled in three runs against his former team. That capped Atlanta’s five-run eighth, and the comeback was complete. Or, choke job. Depends on your point of view. 

7. Rockets-Mavericks:

Dallas squandered a 138-131 lead with under 50 seconds remaining. Seth Curry’s late miss at the free throw line gave Houston hope, but James Harden was shooting two free throws with less than 4 seconds left and the Rockets still trailing 139-136. Harden made his first. The second was missed, and Robert Covington’s tip forced overtime. Dallas went up by four in the extra session, but Houston went on to win. Could have loaded up on the over. Even at halftime.

8. Jazz-Nuggets:

The NBA postseason kicked off in fine fashion. Denver covered the game in overtime despite 57 from Donovan Mitchell. Another example of me not jumping in on the over and turning it into a profitable game. This was also another example of overtime not being a friend of the underdog bettor.

9. Mavericks-Clippers:

Hours after Denver and Utah’s overtime game, Dallas took on the Clippers. Kristaps Porzingis was ejected, and things turned. Dallas scored 13 points in the third quarter. 135 combined points were scored in the first half. It ended 118-110. Not over 229. Tim Hardaway missed the game’s final shot. Could have covered and put it over. I didn’t tease the two. Lost them both individually. Two bad losses, but I’m going to combine them. Not getting over 229 had to be the real bad beat.

10. Indiana-Rutgers:

It appeared the Scarlet Knights had scored on a wild play to cover that featured a number of laterals. Replay overturned the touchdown. A Halloween disappointment. That’s what I get for letting Joe Benigno and others talk me into liking Rutgers. 

Joey Yonkers’ 10 Worst Gambling Beats of 2019

Thanks to Mike for making me relive my worst moments of the year. Here are my most painful losses from 2019:

10. Texas Tech-Virginia: A magical run for the Cavaliers ended by winning their title game in overtime. Usual mix. Controversial replay and clutch play. Buying points with the underdog only made it more expensive. As SVP says, overtime is not a friend of the underdog bettor.

9. Pacers-Blazers: The second half total was in doubt. I needed a late basket. Indiana missed one shot after another before hitting a shot just after the buzzer. Although the game had already been decided, a review would determine whether or not the second half went over. No basket. Second half over loses.

8. Chargers-Broncos: Few teams suffer more excruciating losses than the Chargers. I took them to win as a road favorite in Denver. The game appeared destined for overtime after an LA field goal. So hard to not call them San Diego. Denver threw up a prayer and benefited from an awful pass interference call before booting the game-winning kick with no time left.

7. UNC-Gonzaga: It was an easy win for the Zags. They were ahead by 19, but North Carolina hit a pair of late threes to sneak under the number. I only bought it from 14 to 13.5, and could have used an extra point. Also, the line went up. My dilemma was not being able to buy points until it gets close to the start. Could not buy down when the number was lower. Teasing with over would have worked as well.

6. Rockets-Warriors Game 1: Golden State was up by three. I bought it down to Warriors -4.5 instead of going ML. Chris Paul picked up a technical in the closing seconds. Golden State then went up by 4, so Houston didn’t foul. At 103-100 they likely would have fouled Curry and lost by 5. Frustrating for numerous reasons. Not buying enough points. Could have gone ML. Technical probably cost me the win. Also, I was at a party. Got the news after it happened, then suffered through an overnight replay to catch up on all the brutal details.

5. Alabama-Auburn: The Iron Bowl again provided us with a memorable contest. Alabama’s defense was poor, but unpredictable happenings ultimately doomed them. The Tide appeared headed for six when an interception was returned 100 yards by a backup linebacker. This pass hit Najee Harris in the back. A late field goal to tie was no good off the left upright. Auburn benefited from the clock stopping for replay just before halftime. It allowed them to score three points, and they won 48-45. Down goes my Alabama ML. Would have been an easy over.

4. Mets-Nationals: Washington came back from 10-4 down in the ninth inning. Jacob deGrom’s bad luck continued, and so did mine. First of all, I didn’t take the run line. That cost me. An epic collapse by the Mets was capped off when Edwin Diaz allowed a home run to Kurt Suzuki. The Mets scored five runs in their final frame to go up by six runs. This created a level of comfort for manager Mickey Callaway. He took out Seth Lugo, who was his best relief pitcher. This was the largest ninth-inning comeback in Nationals history. There were other stats about just how crazy this comeback had been. I started to hear them choking while driving, and they had already lost when I finally put SNY on.

3. Bengals-Dolphins: This game cost me on a parlay sheet. Hard to say losing on the Bengals is a bad beat when they were down 23 midway through the fourth, but I’ll explain. At 35-33, Cincinnati made their conversion with no time left and forced overtime. I had +3. Miami scored with no time remaining in overtime to finally win. A tie would have been good for me. There were other things that made it worse. After picking Miami to win during the week, I listened to people and settled on Bengals +3. It pushed, and Miami would not have won either. Ties are losses unless picked, which is ridiculous. Finally, it really wasn’t Dolphins -3 by late in the week. Miami was an underdog. My official pick was 19-18 Dolphins. If the sheet had Miami +1, I would have taken the underdog and won.

2. Falcons-Niners: Another parlay sheet goes down. Atlanta scored a pair of touchdowns in the final two seconds. A replay review prevented the final from being 22-17 San Fran. Laterals and insanity resulted in another Falcons score with no time remaining. This is probably considered the worst beat of 2019 by most gamblers. Definitely one of them. I didn’t realize it had cost me until sorting through my picks later on. Three other sheets lost only one game that weekend. These things have haunted me since I went 10-0 on a sheet in 1994. Even then, I was given 200-1 when a competing sheet had better odds. By not getting the 300-1 payout, I felt cheated out of 500 dollars. First, I’m rooting for Atlanta. The last touchdown doesn’t even register with me until SVP tweets about it putting that game over. My thought was what idiot would take that under. Then I checked my sheets.

1. Utah-BYU: I call this the SVP game. He talked me into BYU. Live bets were flying. This game took place in the summer. Football games that take place in August are sometimes delayed by bad weather. We saw that during this year’s Jets-Giants preseason affair. A delay prolonged my agony, but also provided hope that bets would be wiped away because 55 minutes had not yet been played. During SVP’s show an update on the bottom showed that it had gone final. This made me think that is was cut short. The game had resumed and finished. ESPN didn’t return to Utah-BYU, and never even told us about play resuming. A debacle on all fronts. Nothing happened late except for a very long drive killing time, and all game wagers becoming official. SVP even addressed an angry tweet about this, saying that he didn’t know what channel they were on at that point. ESPN taking it off air and the false hope of losses getting wiped out make this the worst beat of 2019 for me.

Wait a Second, I Can Bet On Sports Now?

I don’t think there is anything more overblown than all this nonsense about sports betting becoming legal. People are so stupid. The hosts have a pretty good idea of what’s going on, but even they aren’t completely keyed in. Mike Francesa thinks he needs to explain live betting, and of course, does a poor job of doing it. People have been doing that for over ten years. Mike said it is only during breaks. That is the most popular time, but it depends on your site and the game. You can call somebody or use a phone to log in.

I hear about how people could possibly bet right from a stadium. As if I didn’t call in a second-half wager from Giants Stadium in 2005. All the changes are things that most people don’t care about. It might be more accepted. The total number of people betting could increase. Money might go to or come from a different place. You would think we are going from legal wagering to illegal betting. That would be a story. I guess most people have no clue how gambling works, and I’m sure they don’t realize how rampant it is.

Suppose there is a controversial call and somebody lost 100 bucks. More people will think the games are fixed. I just heard that one. Good point. I don’t think there has ever been a controversial call that resulted in someone losing 100 dollars. Talk about opening Pandora’s box. Right up there with speculation that now athletes or officials will bet.

Think about this. There are different ways to place a bet. Now, somebody who is a popular public figure will wager in public. Even if they had a friend or relative do it, that would probably get out with social media.

Call me crazy, but I think that would probably be done on a site. As Francesa has always said, your local guy offers credit. Any new law or ability to wager legally will not put those people out of business. I just heard another great caller. College players should get paid because there is now more opportunity for fraud. Let me get this straight. You pay someone under the table, but then bet in public? Any large wagers will likely be monitored closely.

Another thing I hear is that people will become addicted to gambling. That does not happen with lotteries, casinos, and whatever else is out there today. I didn’t even get into fantasy sports. Scraping up 50 bucks and going to a window could really do you in. Much more than betting hundreds when you have nothing in your pocket. By the way, teenagers have bookies. Plus, they take bets. Don’t be naive and think otherwise.

 

I look forward to more ridiculous points and foolish questions. Sports betting was already here to stay (and growing) way before all of this came into public discussion. Educate yourself. Don’t add to the stupidity.

2018 Masters: Preview And Betting Guide

Hello friends. One of my favorite weeks in sports continues as we transition from the Final Four to The Masters. The Masters is my favorite golfing major because of the history, tradition, and the prestige of the Green Jacket. There are so many memorable moments that come to mind. Tiger’s chip on 16. Jack’s putt in 86. Phil jumps for joy in 2004. Last year, Sergio finally gets his first major. These are moments that every golf fan has ingrained in their head.

Now, I know not everyone watches golf. However, I’d venture to say that most sporting fans tune into the Masters because one, March Madness is over and two, Tiger Woods is playing. More eyeballs is great for golf. Plus, this could be the greatest Masters ever. Tiger and Phil are healthy, the young guns are firing, and Rory, DJ, and Jordan look to cement their place as best in the world. It should be spectacular television.

However, there’s a good percentage of fans who will watch for one reason only: gambling. The Masters is a great time to gamble on golf because the amount of bets you can place will be higher than most tournaments. The best players in the world play at Augusta so the competition will be superb. If you have never bet on golf before, there are two types of bets I focus on: Odds to win and Head-to-Head matchup. Even if you don’t like golf, there’s no better rush than winning a bet so I’m here to share some of my favorite plays this weekend.

DG’s Plays For The 2018 Masters 

*All odds are taken from Sportsbook.ag at 5 PM on 4/4/18. Subject to change. Check with your bookie / site for updated odds. *

Odds to Win

My Favorites: Rory McIlroy +1200, Dustin Johnson +1200

Both guys are favorites for a reason. They can hit the ball a mile and when their putters are on, watch out. Rory and Dustin have never won a green jacket, but they both have majors to their names. If I had to pick one to bet on, it would be Rory. All Rory needs is the Green Jacket and he’ll be the 6th golfer in the Masters era to win all four majors. He won 2 weeks ago so he’s coming in with momentum. It’s time for Rory to roar.

Popular Plays In Next Tier: Bubba Watson +1500, Phil Mickelson +1800

Going into this year, most fans thought these two were dead in the water. Bubba went two years without winning a tournament before he won 2 in the span of 5 weeks. Phil had not won an event since 2013 before he won in early March. Both guys found their putting stoke. If I’m picking one, I’m going with Phil. With 3 green jackets and 15 Top 10s at the Masters, it’s safe to say Phil feels home at Augusta.

Darkhorses: Marc Leishman +7000, Brian Harman +9000

Aussie Aussie Aussie, Oi Oi Oi. After a strong 2017 with 2 wins, Leishman is trying to break through into the second tier of top golfers with the likes of Rickie Fowler and Sergio Garcia. Last year, Leishman made every cut in all 4 majors including T-6th at the British. Don’t be surprised if you see him in the Top 10 on Sunday. On the other side, Brian Harman has stones. He’s fiery and fearless. The man can putt (7th in SG: Putting) and to win the Masters, you have to make some pressure filled putts. Take a flyer on Harman and watch the lefty work his magic.

Matchups
*You can bet either day-to-day or for the whole tournament*

Round 1: Haotong Li -130 vs. Fred Couples Even

Who is Haotong Li? Don’t worry about it. However, Fred Couples is a Masters staple. He is 58 years old, but someway, he can still turn the clocks back and play like he’s 30. Couples has 6 Top 20s in his last 7 starts so I’m going with the crafty vet.

Tournament: Jason Day -135 vs. Paul Casey +105

Jason Day is a former number one in the world with a victory a few weeks ago, but his back is in trouble. I hate to see a guy get injured, but he’s had back issues over the years, which worries me in trusting him this weekend. However, I am ALL ABOUT Paul Casey this weekend. The man is due for a major. He’s always “that guy in the mix.” He’s Mr. Consistent and finished here 6th in 2017. Throw in the fact that Casey won a few weeks ago and I’m sold on the Englishman.

Tournament: Justin Thomas -150 vs. Tiger Woods +120

I know most of you are reading this for a Tiger Woods bet. There are so many props you can do with Tiger, but if I had to pick one, here’s my pick. Why am I picking Tiger over the number two player in the world? Prior history. Thomas has taken enormous steps to become one of the best golfers on the planet. However, besides a win at lat year’s PGA and T-9 at the US Open, he’s been pretty average. His best finish at Augusta is T-22. Thomas will win a green jacket one day, but not this year. Tiger is “feeling himself.” Everyone can’t stop raving about him in practice and his last three finishes this year are 12, T-2, and T-5. The Masters is his playground so look for him to beat JT head-to-head.

There are so many bets that you can place. I haven’t even touched the surface with prop bets. That being said, I prefer head-to-head so check out the lines on those matchups tonight. Enjoy the Masters!

Official DMR Picks In The NFL: Week 7 Edition

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A lot has changed in the NFL since last weekend. The Chiefs lost two straight, including one of the wildest Thursday Night finishes you will ever see out in the Black Hole, two double digit favorites lost outright for the first time in over 30 years, Sunday. It was a wild weekend around the league, the Jets got robbed and the G-Men even pulled off the upset for their first win in primetime. Through all the madness, the boys of the DMR keep chugging along neck and neck with positive records. Let’s see if they can keep it going as we get into the thick of football season. P.S. what a great time to be a sports (gambling) fan with an event of importance seemingly happening every night.

LordTreeSap – 15-10 (Lock 2-3)

Titans (-5.5) @ Browns

The Browns and Niners remain the NFL’s only winless teams, but Cleveland isn’t even competing in these games. Tennessee looked to be back on track even with a hobbled Mariota at the helm against a poor Colts team at home. In a season where you can’t trust anyone, there’s one thing you can bank on and that’s the Browns’ incompetence.

Buccaneers @ Bills (-3)

Sean McDermott has the Bills playing good football, especially at New Era Field where Buffalo is undefeated at home. Tampa Bay has been a brutal road team and Jameis is going to play hurt after being knocked out in Arizona with a shoulder sprain. Even though I was looking forward to a Fitzy revenge game, I’ll take the Bills and the small chalk here.

Ravens (+6) @ Vikings

Baltimore has been one of the toughest teams in the league to figure out on a week to week basis. We rode with them in Oakland where they pulled out the win, I think they have a good shot here as well. In a match up of similar teams, the value is with the points for the Ravens.

Cardinals (+3) @ Rams (London)

London games are a crap-shoot for the most part, you never know what you’re going to get when a team travels to the other side of the globe. I think the Cardinals traveling over a lot earlier in the week than the Rams gives them an advantage. AZ seems to have straightened out their issues on offense with a rejuvenated AP running the ball and Palmer being able to work the ball down field. The Cards win a close one across the pond.

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Lock: Falcons @ Patriots (-3)

Fans have had their eyes on this Super Bowl rematch since the schedule was released, but both teams come into this match up with a lot more questions than in February. Atlanta’s offense looks out of sync after being shut out by the Dolphins in the second half leading to a loss coming off their bye week. New England was lucky to defeat the Jets after a mysterious call in addition to giving up 350+ passing yards to Josh McCown. In what should be a fun high-scoring affair I’m riding with the Patriots at home.

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DG: 14-11 (4-1 Lock)

Cowboys @ 49ers (+6)

Home dogs, baby! How about the 49ers? They haven’t won a game by in 5 of their 6 losses, they’ve lost by less than one score. That’s all I need to hear. Plus, it’s not like the Cowboys have been blowing people out this year. They can’t seem to finish games so look for San Fran to be down 3 or 4 points in the final minutes.

Panthers (-3) @ Bears

I really wanted to go with Mitchell here, but I just traded for Cam Newton in fantasy so I have to ride with Carolina. They’re coming off a loss, but they’ve had 10 days to prepare for the Bears. Not that they needed it, but the Panthers will be fresh and firing on all cylinders.

Bengals @ Steelers (-5)

Will the real Steelers please stand up? Lose to the Bears. Kill the Ravens. Get demolished by the Jaguars. Beat the undefeated Chiefs. Pick a side already! I think this is the week they start to pick a side and make their push to separate from the division. Once Cincy figures out their backfield situation, they’ll start to click on offense, but I don’t see it happening yet.

Cardinals @ LA Rams (-3)

Another team that wants to break through and be a contender but they keep having setbacks. I think Arizona can play spoiler a lot with AP now, but I don’t see them contending. I think the Rams can compete for a Wild Card spot, but they have to be more consistent. Gurley has been a monster this year, but Goff has been inconsistent. He needs to get it clicking so I’m hoping he figures it out across the pond.

Lock: Titans (-5.5) @ Browns

Bet against the Browns has been my strategy as of late. It’s working. With Mariota back, I don’t see Cleveland winning this game. They’ll keep it close in the first half, but the Titans will have too much in the end. Lock it in.

Official DMR Picks In The NFL: Week 6 Edition

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TIMEOUT TIMEOUT TIMEOUT. This NFL season needs to slow down as we are somehow already into week 6 where they play for pay right in the heart of October. It’s usually around this time where the great teams begin to hit their strides and separate themselves from the rest of the pedestrian pack. Coming into this week, LTS holds the slight upper-hand after a 4-1 Sunday to give himself a 1 game lead over DG. Week 6 features 5 games with blowout potential, as the favorites find themselves giving at least nine points or more.

LordTreeSap – 12-8 (2-2 Lock)

Browns @ Texans (-9.5)

If the U.S. wants to implement a new torture tactic on ISIS I’m all for showing them last week’s tape of the Jets vs Browns game. That shouldn’t even be categorized as football, when you check out the later Cowboys vs Packers game you’d think they were playing two totally different sports. “A 50-yard pass, is that even legal?” The Browns are awful, and they’re starting Kevin Hogan. Houston competed with the best the league has to offer in Kansas City, they should be able to ride Watson to a double-digit victory with ease here.

49ers (+11) @ Redskins

Woah, woah, woah, hold the phone Cotton. Who gave the Redskins the right to be a double digit favorite. I’m throwing up the red flag here and taking the plethora of points with San Francisco who should be able to keep it somewhat close. Rob Kelley is most likely out for Washington. I think the Niners may be the team that gets disrespected by Vegas over and over keeping games close enough to not win them but cover.

Patriots @ Jets (+9.5)

The battle for first place in the AFC East, I would’ve thought you were crazy if you told me this would be the case in October for the New York Jets. I think the number is a bit too high in my opinion. The Jets have played the Pats close, especially at home even when they haven’t had the roster to compete. Just look at the results the past four years in MetLife below. I’m not saying the Jets will win this game outright, but I have a good feeling they can keep it close.

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Giants @ Broncos (-11.5)

I was debating on making this my lock because of how much disarray the Giants find themselves in. Going to Mile High is never fun and with this roster of dysfunction I can smell a blow out like a whiff of weed in Downtown Denver. I feel bad for the G-Men, but tanking may be for the best at this point. The Broncos coming off their bye week should be able to pounce on the weary Giants early on their way to victory.

Lock: Packers (-3) @ Vikings

Let’s keep this short and sweet. Aaron Rodgers vs Case Keenum indoors on a short week and all we need to win by is a field goal. Go Pack Go.

DG: 11-9 (3-1 Lock)

Bucs @ Cardinals (+2)

I’m addicted to home underdogs. The Bucs are without a doubt the better team, but I don’t like them on the road. I think A.P. turns back the clock and gets in the end-zone. I see this game going down to a last second FG. Cards cover.

Steelers @ Chiefs (-4)

This game does scare me. The Steelers were absolutely horrendous last week. That screams bounce back game…Not so fast my friend! Chiefs are the best team in the NFL and they’re almost unbeatable at home. Alex Smith with 3+ TDs for the week.

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Rams @ Jags (-2.5)

The Coughlin Effect! How about the Jags? What a great start to the year. Also, how about those Rams? One of these teams is actually going to legitimately compete for a playoff spot. I love that Goff has proven he can be a stud, but this game belongs to Blake. I’m Jaggin’ off this week as Blake and the boys get the W.

Patriots @ Jets (+9.5)

Screw it. The tank is off. Go Jets.

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Lock: Browns @ Texans (-9.5)

As I’ve said before, not crazy about any of these spreads. That being said, Deshaun Watson is the hottest QB (pause) in football. Houston has found their franchise QB for years to come. This game should not be close whatsoever. Texas in a blowout.

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Joey FreshWater Teaser of The Week: 3 Teams – 10 points (-120)

Denver Broncos -1.5

Greenbay Packers +7

Atlanta Falcons -3

Risk $120 – Win $100

 

 

 

Official DMR Picks In The NFL: Week 5 Edition

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Through four weeks DG (9-6) holds a slight edge over LTS (8-7) thanks to the improbable Kansas City miracle cover Monday night. Chiefs backers were probably doing a dance similar to Travis Kelce’s end-zone celebration after that last second front-door cover. That’s the beauty of the NFL, we get to do it all again this weekend. Week 5 features an interesting slate that only consists of two favorites larger than a field goal. This is a survivor pool nightmare, especially if you already took the Steelers in week 1. Here are the picks in the league where they play for pay (S/O Francesa).

LordTreeSap: 8-7 Overall, 2-1 Lock

Jets (-1) @ Browns

The tank is off people! The Jets have played some inspiring football the last two weeks, defeating the Dolphins and Jaguars at home. In a match up that most thought would feature two teams vying for next year’s number one pick, now sees Gang Green looking to get over .500 as a match up at Metlife with the 3-2 Patriots looms large next week. I’m just as surprised as you guys that the Jets are doing this, they’ll somehow get it done Sunday in the Josh McCown revenge game, who has won back to back starts for the first time since 2004.

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Seahawks (Pick) @ Rams

The classic big brother versus little brother match up. Whoever comes out victorious will have a stranglehold on the NFC West. I don’t know if the Rams are ready just yet to overtake Seattle, as Vegas has given them respect opening as 1 point favorites. Seattle looked like themselves once again in a dominant second half against Indy, the big brother is victorious come Sunday.

Ravens (+3) @ Raiders

I know, the Ravens have looked horrendous the past couple weeks after a fast start, but the Raiders haven’t been exactly impressive either after two straight losses and now they are going to be without Derek Carr for about a month. This line tells me the Raiders with E.J. Manuel under center are even with the Ravens and I disagree. Prove me right Joe Flacco and company!

Packers (+2.5) @ Cowboys

Aaron Rodgers is absolutely going to feast on this struggling Cowboy secondary, even though the Pack come into this premier match up a little banged up, but Ty Montgomery and Davante Adams are expected to play. This will probably be similar to the playoff game we saw in January. Give me Green Bay in a tight one.

Lock: Chargers @ Giants (-3)

The battle of the 0-4s. I see a lot of people going with the Giants in survivor pools and I agree this is a good spot for them to get off the schneid. The Chargers coming east for a 1 P.M. start gives the G-Men a chance to get out to an early lead. Eli and Philip Rivers will forever be tied at the hip after being dealt for each other at the 2004 NFL Draft. NYG gets their first win as the Chargers fall to 0-5 and will have even less fans in Los Angeles at the Stubhub Center the rest of the way.

DG: 9-6 Overall, 2-1 Lock

Packers (+2.5) @ Cowboys

I think this game will turn out exactly like the divisional playoff game. Green Bay starts off red hot. Then, Dallas will make its run and eventually tie the game. Mason Crosby kicks a game winner again. I really think this has shootout written all over it. When push comes to shove, I’ll go down with Aaron Rodgers any day of the week.

Panthers @ Lions (-2)

Folks, the Lions are for real. They are one yard away from being undefeated. Stafford has come out guns blazing and will be in the MVP discussion when the year comes to an end. I like their defense led by their front 7. What have the Lions been missing during the Matthew Stafford era? A running back who can actually…run! Ameer Abdullah is showing what he can do when healthy and is a viable running option. Lions by a touchdown.

Jets @ Browns (+1)

Home dogs!!!!! The Browns have to win a game, right? The Jets want to lose, right? I feel like I’m taking crazy pills. No game analysis here. I just think the universe has to right the wrong that they did to Jets fan by giving them 2 wins. The tanks is back on as DeShone Kizer gets his first win as a pro.

Jaguars @ Steelers (-7)

The Steelers are an enigma. They struggle versus the Browns and Ravens. They blow out their archival Ravens. I really can’t figure them out. Can they put two good games together in a row? I think that will happen this week. Bell finally had a breakout game and I see him reaching the end zone multiple time this week. Also, look for Martavis Bryant to score in the end zone. He is super due.

Lock: 49ers @ Colts (-1)

Nothing gets the juices flowing like betting on bad teams. The 49ers have ZERO idea how to finish. In their last 3 games, they have lost by a combined 8 points. They could’ve easily won all 3 games too. The Colts are another mystery too. Andrew Luck finally returned to practice so that’s promising. They’ve either gotten blown out or kept it to a 3 point game. This actually might be my survivor league pick as well. I like home teams in survivor and I’m trusting Jakey Brissett over Brian Hoyer.